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Mats Hoefler's avatar

What makes decisions like this hard isn’t even the politics, it’s the mismatch in time horizons. The upside is immediate and legible - jobs, revenue, investment, activity. The downside, if it materializes, unfolds slowly and then becomes effectively permanent. Acid drainage doesn’t operate on election cycles.

What I struggle with in cases like this is how we price that asymmetry. Markets and political systems are both relatively good at optimizing for short-term, measurable gain. They’re much worse at valuing irreversible risk, especially when the probability isn’t 100% but the consequence, if it happens, lasts for generations.

And once you’re dealing with something that can’t be meaningfully undone on a human timeline, the usual economic tradeoff logic starts to feel incomplete. It’s no longer just a question of growth versus preservation - it’s a question of optionality. After certain thresholds are crossed, there is no reset.

Whatever side one lands on politically, the structural tension here is real: how do you design incentives in a way that accounts for damage that compounds beyond the decision-makers’ tenure? That feels like the deeper issue underneath the headline.

Marianne Giesler's avatar

Furious and sad

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