How Bad Will A Shutdown Be For National Parks?

Rural communities could lose hundreds of millions of dollars a day, and that’s before mass layoffs

If the government shuts down this week, some of the worst impacts will be felt in national parks, and the small rural communities that economically rely on them. A new report from the National Park Service gives us some numbers, which combined with previous shutdowns, allows us to draw some broad conclusions about how bad this could be.

That report is the 2024 National Park Visitor Spending Effects, an annual tabulation of total spending from park visitors. It finds that visitors spent $29 billion in gateway communities last year, a full 10 percent increase from 2023, which held the previous record. That supported over 340,000 jobs, creating $18.8 billion in labor income. Total spending across visitations to all 433 national park sites along with the subsequent employment and supply chains created $56.3 billion in total economic output, again a new record.

These numbers follow a March report—which I exclusively reported was the subject of efforts at suppression by the Trump administration—that 2024 also brought a record number of total visitors to national parks: 331.9 million.

In 2024, the total appropriated budget for NPS was $3.475 billion. Every dollar taxpayers invested in national parks last year resulted in $16.20 of output.

That national parks are a significant economic driver, especially for rural communities, is unsurprising. What is surprising is the administration’s effort to derail that value by firing the staff who keep visitors safe, protect natural treasures from all those people, and who provide visitors with guidance and education.

Since January 20th, the administration has decreased the full-time workforce in national parks by 24 percent, while also failing to fill thousands of seasonal positions. The visitor experience is already suffering, despite efforts by dedicated staff to hold things together.

Enter the government shutdown. How bad will it be for parks? Arriving at a formula that could produce accurate numbers is impossible, but let’s try a few variations, and see what kind of loose conclusions they might provide.

The big question is whether or not the administration will close park gates, or keep them open. Even now, just a day from the shutdown, the Department of the Interior has issued zero guidance to its employees about what its plans are. During the last government shutdown, which spanned 35 days in December 2018 and January 2019, the parks were left open, with limited staffing.

A lot of data around the impacts that shutdown had on parks was never gathered, or released. But, the National Parks Conservation Associated estimates that visitations fell by about 425,000 people a day. The NPS visitor spending effects report for 2024 estimates there were 128 million party day/nights that year, resulting in that total economic impact figure. So, if we divide $56.3 billion by 128 million we get $439.84 per party day/night. If visitation again falls by 425,000 daily, that could result in a loss to the economy of $187 million/day that the government is shutdown, and parks remain open.

But as that number indicates, every day in national parks is not equal ($187 million x 365 = more money than the total annual impact from NPS). Visitation peaks during July and August, and is at its lowest in December and January. That tells me that the ultimate impact per-day could be greater in October than it was during the last shutdown. But there will be more variables that ultimately determine that number.

Speaking of seasons, we should also talk about damage to the parks themselves. NPS never reported a total number for the damage unsupervised visitors, and lack of maintenance caused to park infrastructure and natural features during the last shutdown.

“We know what happened last time park staff were forced to leave parks open and unprotected, and the impacts were disastrous,” reports NPCA. “Prehistoric petroglyphs were vandalized, battlefield artifacts were stolen, Joshua trees were cut down and illegal off-roading vehicles drove through fragile archaeological sites. The damage was devastating and, in some cases, permanent.”

Looking at figures for the maintenance backlog in national parks, those increased from $11.9 billion in 2018 to $13.1 billion in 2019. If we assume that increase was all due to shutdown-related damage, and adjust for inflation, we arrive at about $36 million in infrastructure damage per-day of shutdown.

Much of that damage resulted from winter weather. Pipes froze, roads weren’t maintained, and snow wasn’t removed from roofs. Damage from weather may be less of a concern during October, but it is hurricane season.

Speaking of hurricanes, the 2024 impact report shows that there were 12.2 million visits to the Great Smokey Mountains National Park and 16.7 million to the Blue Ridge Parkway, bringing $3.56 billion in consumer spending and 36,000 jobs to a region that is now recovering from Hurricane Helene. Will a shutdown, and its subsequent impact on park visitation during peak fall foliage season, hamper recovery efforts?

But perhaps the worst impacts will come to employees themselves. I reported last week that the administration is threatening to use this shutdown as an excuse to lay off any workers who aren’t maintained as essential. And that could impact up to 80 percent of remaining NPS employees, according to former director Jon Jarvis.

Now it looks as if the administration has taken then next step in that plan. Guidance just issued by the Office of Personnel Management instructs department heads that developing and implementing plans for mass reductions in force (RIFs) should be considered an “essential” duty, and that any employees working on such should continue that during a shutdown.

“[Office of Management and Budget] has determined that agencies are authorized to direct employees to perform work necessary to administer the RIF process during the lapse in appropriations as excepted activities,” reads that memo.

The NPS impact report specifically references spending by park employees as one of the economic drivers national parks bring to those rural communities. During the 2018-2019 shutdown, about 12,000 full-time staff at NPS were furloughed. Given the average salary in that agency is about $61,000 annually, we’re looking at a potential reduction of $732 million in annual labor income, and the subsequent spending that supports, should all “non-essential” park service employees face RIFs.

Speaking of numbers, I feel like a good way to conclude is with this one: The National Park Service accounts for 0.04 percent of the federal budget.

Top photo: Frank J Haynes

Upgrading to a paid subscription is an investment in the future of independent reporting on public lands and the outdoors. Doing so enables journalism like this to remain free, so that it can change the most minds possible. It also buys personal access to Wes, who will use his experience and his extensive network of subject matter experts to guide your gear purchases, help plan your trips, and save you money. You can read more about what Wes is doing on Substack at this link.